Sunday, May 13, 2018

A Re-Post of - The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 - 1963 to 1994

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31-year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025



The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niñevents leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:

New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

[N.B. During these epochs, the peak seasonal tides are dominated by new moons that are    predominately in the northern hemisphere.]

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

[N.B. During these epochs. the peak seasonal tides are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the southern hemisphere.]
If we specifically look at the 31-year New Moon Epoch 5, we find that: 

Figures 1, 2, and 3 (below) show the Moon's distance from the Earth (in kilometers) at the times where it crosses the Earth's equator, for the years 1964 through to 1995.

Figure 1


  Figure 2


Figure 3



Superimposed on each of these figures are the seven strong(#) El Niño events that occurred during this time period. Table 1 summaries the dates (i.e year and month) for start of each of these seven strong El Niño events.

Table 1



# For the definition of a strong El Niño event go to part c) of:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-Nino-events-are_12.html

[* N.B. The 1969 El Niño event just falls short of the selection criterion for a strong El Niño event because it only last for three months. It has been included in Table 1 for completeness.]

Figures 1,2 and 3 clearly show that all of the eight El Niño events in this tidal epoch occur at times where the distance of the Moon as sequential crossings of the Earth's equator have almost the same value of ~ 382,000 km. In the years when this happens, the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice. 

It is possible that this correlation could be dismissed as a coincidence. However, it is extremely unlikely that:

a)  during the other New Moon tidal epoch i.e. Epoch 3 - from the 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932, El Niño events should also occur when the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice.

b) during the Full Moon tidal epochs i.e. Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901; Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963; Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025, El Nino events should occur when  the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the March or September Equinox.

The switch between the timing of El Niño events, once every 31 years, at the same time that there is a switch from a New Moon tidal epoch to Full Moon tidal epoch, tell us that it is very likely that El Niño events, are in fact, triggered by the lunar tides.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Recent Publications


2018

Ian Robert George Wilson* and Nikolay S Sidorenkov, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2

Abstract:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

2017

N.S.Sidorenkov, Ian Wilson, Influence of Solar Retrograde Motion on Terrestrial Processes, Odessa Astronomical Publications, vol. 30 (2017), p. 246

Abstract:

The influence of solar retrograde motion on secular minima of solar activity, volcanic eruptions, climate changes, and other terrestrial processes is investigated. Most collected data suggest that secular minima of solar activity, powerful volcanic eruptions, significant climate changes, and catastrophic earthquakes occur around events of solar retrograde motion.

http://oap.onu.edu.ua/article/view/114695/113096

Thursday, April 26, 2018

Temporary Holding Post for Diagram

The NAO is proportional to the Time Rate of Change of the LOD


Figure 1: The top graph shows the time rate of change of the Earth’s length of day (LOD) between 1865 and 2005. (Note: The LOD data has been transformed into arbitrary units so that it can be compared to the NAO index). Positive means that LOD of day is increasing compared to its standard value of 86400 seconds and that Earth is slowing down. The bottom graph shows the North Atlantic Oscillation Index between 1864 and 2006. The data points that are plotted in both graphs have been obtained by taking a five year running mean of the raw data.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales

Ian Robert George Wilson and Nikolay S Sidorenkov

Wilson and Sidorenkov, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:1, p. 446

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

Abstract:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm ) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.



Discussion and Conclusions:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find all the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly at, or away, from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of the cardinal points of its seasonal calendar (i.e., the summer solstice, winter solstices, spring equinox or autumnal equinox). All of the close lunar alignments are identified over a 536-year period between January 1st 1993 A.D. 00:00 hrs UT and December 31st 2528 A.D 00:00 hrs UT.

When a plot is made of the precision of these alignments, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, the most precise alignments take place in an orderly pattern that repeats itself once every 208.0 years:

0 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 28.75 years ≈ 25.5 FMC’s
1 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 88.5 years ≈ 78.5 FMC’s
2 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 148.25 years ≈ 131.5 FMC’s
3 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 208.0 years ≈ 184.5 FMC’s

A simple extension of this pattern gives additional precise alignments at periods of: 236.75, 296.50, 356.25, 416.0, 444.75 and 504.5 years. The full significance of the 208-year repetition pattern in the periodicities of lunar alignment index (ϕ) only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series.

The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm ) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for a 2,264-year period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. Tm is believed to be a proxy for how warm it gets during the daytime in any given year i.e., it is an indicator of annual mean maximum daytime temperature. Tm is derived from the tree ring widths of Bristlecone Pines (P. aristata) located near the upper tree-line of the San Francisco Peaks (= 3,536 m).

The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) for the last 9400 years. ϕm is a proxy for the ability of the Sun’s magnetic field to deflect cosmic rays, and as such, it is a good indicator of the overall level of solar activity. It is derived from production rates of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C. When a comparison is made between these three spectra it shows that, of the nine most prominent periods seen in the lunar alignment index, eight have closely matching peaks in the spectrum of solar modulation potential (ϕm), and seven have closely matching peaks in the spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm). The fact that the so many of the most prominent peaks that are seen in the lunar alignment index spectrum closely match those seen in the spectra of ϕm and Tm, strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are closely related to one another.

The critical piece of observational evidence that explains why Tm might be related to ϕm is provided [32]. These authors find that there is a good correlation between the de-trended GCR flux and the semiannual component of the Earth’s LOD. Our analysis confirms the correlation found [32] and shows that the correlation is causal, with the changes in the GCR flux preceding those seen in the semi-annual component of the Earth’s LOD by roughly one year.

This result leads us to develop a heuristic luni-solar model in order to explain the connection between Tm and ϕm. Firstly, the model proposes that there must be some as yet unknown factor associated with the level of solar activity on the Sun (e.g. possibly the overall level GCR hitting the Earth) that is producing long-term systematic changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover. Secondly, it proposes that the resulting changes in regional cloud cover lead to variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles which, in turn, result in changes to the peak strength of the zonal tropical winds. Thirdly, the model proposes that it is the long-term changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover, combined with the variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles that lead to the long-term changes in the poleward energy and momentum flux. And finally, it proposes that it is this flux which governs the rate at which the Earth warms and cools, and hence, determines the long-term changes in the world mean temperature.

The close matches between the periods of the prominent peaks that are seen in spectra of ϕ Figure 4a and Tm Figure 4c, indicate that a factor associated with the times at which the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is at one of its Solstices or Equinoxes, has an influence on the Earth’s mean temperature [N.B. these alignments take place in frame of reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit].

The proposed Luni-Solar Model suggests one possible mechanism that might explain the influence of ϕ upon Tm. This model proposes that the periodicities associated with the long-term alignments between the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun (i.e., half multiples of the FMC) and the seasons (i.e., the Solstices and Equinoxes – which, by definition, are synchronized with annual and semi-annual variations in LOD), produce comparable periodicities in the zonal wind speeds of the Earth’s atmosphere. These wind speed changes, in turn, produce longterm periodicities in the Earth’s mean temperature through their influence upon the efficiency with which the Earth warms and cools.

Finally, if we accept the hypothesis that planetary gravitational and tidal forces could influence the overall level of the Sun’s magnetic activity, then the observed synchronicity between ϕ and ϕm could be explained if these same planetary forces played a role in shaping the present-day orbit of the Moon.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Further Evidence That the Orbital Periods of the Planets Determine the Timing for Solar Maxima and Minima.


     Figure 2a shows the position angle of Jupiter measured from the alignment axis of the superior conjunction of Venus and Earth plotted against the position angle of Jupiter measured from the alignment axis of the inferior conjunction of Venus and Earth. The inferior and superior conjunctions chosen as the x,y coordinates for each point in this graph are those that are closest to a given solar maximum, for all solar maxima since 1700 A.D. The dates of solar maxima that are used are those published by Usoskin and Mursala (2003).

     Figure 2b shows the corresponding plot for position angles of Jupiter at the superior and inferior conjunctions closest to each of the solar minima since 1700 A.D. Again, the dates of solar minima are those published by Usoskin and Mursala (2003). In both figure 2a and figure 2b, symbols have been used to segregate the points into the 14 even and 14 odd numbered solar sunspot cycles.



A comparison between figure 2a and 2b shows that there is a marked segregation between the position angles of Jupiter at solar maximum compared to solar minimum. When Venus and the Earth are at inferior conjunction, at a given solar maximum, the position angle of Jupiter either lies between 60O and 90O or 0O and 30O, and when Venus and the Earth are at superior  conjunction, for the same solar maximum, the position angle of Jupiter is the complement of that angle. This is in marked contrast with the situation at solar minimum when the position angles of Jupiter lie almost exclusively between 30O and 60O for both inferior and superior conjunctions of Venus and the Earth.


     What is even more remarkable, however, is the complete separation between the odd and even cycles at solar maximum that can be seen in figure 2a. This means that Jupiter's position angle, at the time of alignments of Venus, Earth and the Sun, are completely different for even solar maxima than they are for odd solar maxima. Figure 3a shows Jupiter's position for inferior and superior conjunctions of Venus and the Earth, at times of even numbered solar maxima, while figure 3b shows Jupiter's position at the times of odd numbered solar maxima.

Reference:

Wilson, I.R.G., 2011, Do Periodic peaks in the Planetary Tidal 
Forces Acting Upon the Sun Influence the Sunspot Cycle? 
The General Science Journal, Dec 2011, 3812.


[Note: This paper was actually written by October-November 2007 and submitted to the New Astronomy (peer-reviewed) Journal in early 2008 where it was rejected for publication. It was resubmitted to the (peer-reviewed) PASP Journal in 2009 where it was again rejected. The paper was eventually published in the (non-peer reviewed) General Science Journal in 2010.]